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ANCYL Bears the Brunt of Intolerance

The latest press release from Ipsos Markinor examines the topic of political intolerance which is a vital issue as we approach the 2009 election and experience degrees of political instability in areas of the country where intolerance is rife.

Unfortunately this data was collected (October 2008) before the launch of COPE and so we are not able to include COPE in the analysis – only to say that the picture of intolerance may change substantially once COPE is factored.

Despite the absence of COPE, the data weaves an interesting story particularly given the negative attention metered out to the ANCYL in recent weeks and months.

Key Findings

Intolerance is broad based and not focused on one specific group (a number of groups in South Africa are therefore the recipients of intolerance).

The ANC, ANC Youth League (ANCYL), the DA and the IFP are mentioned as the least liked groups in that order – interesting to note that these groups are all mainstream political parties and not militant fringe groups which means that intolerance should largely rear its head during an election campaign and hopefully be managed by the rule of law and election protocol. (A pre-coded list was generated based on previous research and they were requested to select the one group that they least like.)

The ANCYL is currently the recipient of the highest degrees of intolerance when respondents are tested on attitudes of intolerance. Seeing that the ANCYL does not contest the election on its own, these attitudes are more than likely transferred onto the ANC closer to the election.

Predictably relations between supporters of the ANC and the DA are fairly contentious.

Analysis

To test levels of tolerance or intolerance respondents were asked to choose a group or party they dislike the most. These groups are called target groups. It is interesting that the target groups are spread across the political spectrum: 13% of eligible voters choose the ANC as a target group, 10% chose the ANC Youth League, 11% the DA, 13% the IFP and 12% chose foreigners. No one party is singled out by more than 13% of eligible voters. Political tolerance in South Africa therefore seems to be broader based rather than focussed on one specific party or group. This somewhat helps to alleviate the negative consequences of intolerance as attitudes are more diffuse and less dogmatically attached to one group. Intolerance however in any shape or form is a threat to democracy and should be monitored carefully.

Political tolerance asks of citizens to extend the same civil liberties (civil rights) that they claim for themselves to their political enemies. It is one of the core requirements of a democracy, yet it seems very difficult for citizens to extend the same civil liberties to opposition groups or groups they really dislike. When citizens do not want to extend these civil liberties it is an indication of intolerance. During an election campaign political intolerance can have severe consequences for free and fair campaigning as the events of this past weekend in Nongoma have shown.

To determine levels of tolerance in the opinion poll, respondents were firstly asked about their least liked group and then asked three questions about that group:

• Whether they would allow members of the target group to stand as a candidate in an election.
• Whether they would allow members of the target group to hold a speech in their town hall.
• Whether they would allow members of the target group to hold a street demonstration in their community.

The results show clearly that the ANCYL is the recipient of the highest degree of intolerance – more than half the respondents who chose the ANCYL as their least liked group, did not want members to stand as candidates in the next election, nor hold a street demonstration or speech in their community. The ANC itself was the second highest target of intolerance but not nearly as strongly disliked as the Youth League.

Other political parties which featured as least liked groups like the DA, IFP, ID and the trade union, COSATU, were also recipients of intolerant attitudes but not to the same extent as the ANCYL and the ANC. This is particularly interesting in light of the controversy which surrounds the ANCYL leader, Julius Malema and his inflammatory rhetoric which receives much publicity in the media.

Ipsos Markinor also measured whether supporters of various political parties have any confidence in Julius Malema as a political leader and the result is as follows:

The interesting fact is that Malema seems to enjoy the highest level of confidence amongst eligible voters who indicated that they support the SACP. Although the SACP does not participate in elections under their own banner, it is quite revealing to see that confidence in Malema’s abilities obviously emanates quite strongly from the SACP part of the tripartite alliance.

It is also interesting to note who supporters of the main political parties chose as their target groups (least liked groups).

• Supporters of the ANC chose firstly the DA and secondly the IFP as their least liked groups.
• Supporters of the DA chose firstly the ANC and secondly the ANCYL as their least liked groups.
• Supporters of the IFP chose the ANC and secondly Afrikaners.
• Supporters of the FF+ chose firstly the ANC, secondly the ANCYL and thirdly COSATU as their least liked groups.

This is a fairly predictable outcome given the contentious relationship between the ANC and the DA and the fact that the opinion poll was conducted before the launch of COPE.

Slightly more DA supporters displayed intolerance towards the ANC than vice versa on the issue of candidates standing for an election. This is quite alarming that almost half of ANC supporters and just over half of DA supporters – supporters from the two main political parties – are not willing to concede a basic civil right to their opponents.

The problem with political tolerance, however, is that tolerance and intolerance are not symmetrical beliefs. What tolerance demands of people is to be a passive and to “put up” with values and beliefs they disagree with. Intolerance on the other hand usually demands of people to be active and to prevent target groups from doing certain things such as fielding candidates for elections. Obviously the consequences of intolerance can often lead to very serious violence as evident during the 1994 election and in the run up to the 2009 election. That is why we always focus on the percentage of respondents who are intolerant because their behaviour often determines the outcome of political events.

For more information contact:

Mari Harris
Director & Political Analyst:
Business Development and Public Affairs
Tel: 011 686 8458 / 082 380 3010
mari.harris@ipsos-markinor.co.za

Anneke Greyling
Political Analyst:
Tel: 021 680 9200 / 083 777 0161
anneke.greyling@ipsos-markinor.co.za

Helen Macdonald
Political Analyst:
Tel: 021 680 9200 / 073 881 3537
helen.macdonald@ipsos-markinor.co.za