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An Assessment Of Government Performance Prior To The 2009 General Elections

For the first time since the Government Performance Barometer was conducted nationally in the mid-90’s, more adult South Africans feel that the country is going in the wrong direction (42%) than in the right direction (38%).

General satisfaction with government performance
Would you say that the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

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These results are from the Government Performance Barometer, a biannual study conducted by Ipsos Markinor. A total of 3 312 respondents, representative of the adults of voting age (18+) in South Africa were interviewed in October and November last year. This sample was scientifically selected to represent South Africa’s adult population. Results are weighted and projected to the universe – i.e. the eligible voters in the country.

The year 2008 presented many challenges for those living in South Africa. To name a few, the year began with the energy crisis and this was soon followed by increasing petrol prices and high inflation figures, which resulted in a continual hiking of interest rates that started in 2007. The year continued to present more challenges, such as the xenophobic attacks and a number of political developments in the Polokwane aftermath.

A question arises: how have these challenges affected South Africans’ outlook on life in South Africa and their perceptions of the government’s performance?

With the opening of parliament and the State of the Nation Address on Friday, 6 February 2009, a review of government performance is very relevant. This is also especially pertinent considering that the date of the general election will most likely be announced during this sitting.

In the Government Performance Barometer, questions were asked about the performance of the president, deputy president, the national government, the provincial governments and the provincial premiers. Do South Africans think they are doing their jobs very well, fairly well, not really well or not at all well?

National Government

The November 2008 Government Performance Barometer presented the first opportunity to measure how well South Africans perceive President Kgalema Motlanthe and Deputy President Baleka Mbeta to be doing their respective jobs.

Twenty seven per cent of South Africans, 18 years and older, think the president is doing his job very well or fairly well and 21% think the deputy president is doing her job very well or fairly well. It must, however, be kept in mind that the poll was conducted shortly after they were appointed and the level of uncertainty was high (six out of every ten South Africans did not express an opinion).

Just over half of eligible voters indicated that the national government is doing very well or fairly well, which is significantly higher than the ratings for the president and deputy president. Nevertheless, satisfaction with the performance of the national government is on a steady decline since the previous election, with a decrease of 5% between November 2007 and November 2008. To put this result in context it must be interpreted in the light of the significant political events that occurred during this period.

Performance of the National Government (% Very/Fairly Well)

To add context to this rating of the national government, eligible voters were asked to rate the government in terms of 23 policy and service delivery areas. A year ago (at the beginning of 2007), it was reported that there were 5 “red lights” (performance scores lower than 50%); 16 “orange lights” (performance scores of between 51%-74%) and 2 “green lights” (performance scores of 75% and above). At the beginning of 2008 there were 11 red lights and 12 orange lights, but no green lights.

By the end of 2008, eligible voters indicated 12 red lights, 10 orange lights and 1 green light returned. Thus, the survey showed that South Africans are becoming rather concerned about all 23 governance and service delivery areas listed in the poll with the exception of welfare payment distribution. The results indicate that the government received the poorest ratings in terms of combating the brain drain, controlling the cost of living and inflation and creating jobs. These are all sensitive issues among the public in the light of the current worldwide economic downturn.

Nov ’08: Performance of the National Government:
23 Policy areas – Traffic Light

Eligible voters were also asked what they deemed to be the most important issues or problems facing this country that the new government, which will be elected in 2009, should address.

Correlating this to the government’s rating, it is evident that government received a red light for the three most important issues or problems identified by eligible voters.

The current government does not receive a green light rating for any of the important issues or problems that eligible voters expect the new elected government elected to address.

Provincial Government

When it comes to the satisfaction ratings of the provincial governments, approximately 6 out of 10 eligible voters in the Free State, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal rated their respective governments as performing very well or fairly well.

Only a third of the eligible voters in Mpumalanga share this sentiment, giving it the poorest performance scores. The performances of the remaining provincial governments are average.

The scores of the governments of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape have improved slightly, while satisfaction in the Western Cape has increased by 10% since May 2008.

A notable drop has occurred in the Northern Cape where the very positive ratings from November 2007 to May 2008 have not been carried through to November 2008. A decline in the scores of Limpopo and North West is also noticeable.

Performance of the Provincial Governments (% Very/Fairly Well)

There is a strong correlation between the satisfaction ratings of eligible voters for the provincial governments and for the provincial premiers, with the exception of Mpumalanga where the rating of Thabang Makwetla has improved since May 2008.

The major drop in the ratings for Dipuo Peters corresponds to the marked drop in the ratings for the Northern Cape government. A similar trend is observed between Sello Moloto and the Limpopo government.

Of the new premiers, Lynne Brown has received the most favour from eligible voters in the Western Cape and this is supported by the 10% increase in satisfaction with the Western Cape government, since she was appointed.

The first rating of Paul Mashatile, which is 34%, is lower than the last rating that eligible voters in Gauteng awarded Mbazima Shilowa (who scored 49% in May 2008).

The 18% of Mbulelo Sogoni is markedly lower than the 55% that outgoing premier Nosimo Balindlela achieved in May 2008.

Performance of the Provincial Premier (% Very/Fairly Well)

For more information contact:

Mari Harris
Director & Political Analyst:
Business Development and Public Affairs
Tel: 011 686 8458 / 082 380 3010
mari.harris@ipsos.com

Anneke Greyling
Political Analyst:
Tel: 021 680 9200 / 083 777 0161
anneke.greyling@ipsos.com

Wayne Viljoen
Project Manager:
Tel: 011 686 8431 / 072 117 1140
wayne.viljoen@ipsos.com